Predicting the draft

Steven M. Miller Jr, Staff Writer

-I was talking with the Editor & Chief yesterday evening and he said that it was going to be a wild and wacky draft. The bottom line is there is a lot of depth with the defensive players in the draft, but not a lot of quality quarterbacks, running backs, or recievers. Everyone pays attention to those players because their names are always mentioned more times than the "Ouuuur Country" commercial comes on the air. Plus you have to add in the fantasy football factor in there as well. Of course, if you follow your team religiously, you follow and watch all 255 picks when they happen, or you just know your football, what I said has no impact on your view of things. Then again, if you know who wide reciver Kevin McMahan is, you know exactly what im talking about here.

I think this draft will be different. This year the teams have needs that are spelled out in plain letters. For instance, we look at the New England Patriots with two first round picks. They could use another offensive lineman, or they could use some younger talent at saftey, corner, or the MLB or ILB positions. Or as my buddy Adam says, they will trade down to get a second rounder this year and another draft pick next year. Even though the Pats dont have a second round pick (they traded it away to Miami when they tendered Wes Welker to a contract), their needs are clearly spelled out. This is why I think fewer than 3 teams are going to trade down or up to pick. But as John Clayton notes at point 6, there are a lot of players on the trading block. Then again, I could be completely wrong. But, I do recall saying that Reggie Bush wasn't going to be the #1 pick in February, so we'll see what happens.

And so without further ado I bring you my "Sweet 16:"
[Note: I'm also listing my Pats pick predictions, a couple of notable names and when they will be drafted and by who along with the dark horse candidate of the draft. Enjoy]

The Sweet 16:

Pick #1, Oakland Raiders-
The Raiders have the following three options:

1) They trade their pick away.
-Thoughts- Realistically the chances of this happening are pretty slim to none. I dont think this is going to even remotely happen. The Raiders have the chance to add an impact player to their roster and there is no way this is going to happen. Lindsey Lohan will pose in the nude for Playboy Magazine before the Raiders trade away this pick.

2) They draft JaMarcus Russell.
-Thoughts- The bottom line is that the Raiders passed on quarterbacks in last years draft. Now they need the most important position on the field to help them get some credibility back into their organization. With Art Shell at the helm, the Raiders were a laughingstock of the league. Thanks to a great point by Bill Simmons, I could have probaby paid for a years worth of college and a new car (that I desperately need) after betting on the 2-14 Oakland Raiders (if gambling in fact were legal).

Russell is, of course, the kind of impact player that they could use to build around with some experience. He comes from an LSU squad that lost a close one to Auburn (7-3 in the beginning of the season), got killed 23-10 by national champion Florida, and handled Notre Dame (who was overrated anyway) in the Sugar Bowl. The SEC has been known as one of the conferences that produces the best players for the NFL and year after year produces outstanding football teams. I would like to point out that because of this Russell has the edge over a lot of players because of his experience level. He also led his team down the field with a 2-minute drill in a must win 28-24 game over Tennessee last season. Someone who shows poise and leadership on the field is what you want to see in a young quarterback.

But the question is, do the Raiders throw him into the fire early, or sign a veteran for a one-year deal to bridge the gap. Whats this now, did I hear that Bledsoe's coming out of retirement now?

3) They draft Calvin Johnson.
-Thoughts- Lets face it, the Raiders offense just plain sucked last year. They started three quarterbacks that combined for 8 TD's and 28 INT's. Their enemic offense scored a league worst 10.5 points per game, gained a whopping 248 yards per game and completed a third down 37% of the time (19th in NFL). And they did this with Randy Moss on their team. While Moss and Rice were at one time in the same sentence, at age 30 he is still one of the best wide recievers in the NFL.

Then again, Moss is still double covered more times than there are Bengals players who got arrested, indited or put into prison, but this is another ball of wax. But my point is, this is the reason why its nessesary to draft one of the most talented wide recievers out of college. If you have Moss and Johnson to cover, thats one big problem for opposing secondaries. In all three years that Johnson was in the ACC he made the first team and this year he won the MVP award. While you can never judge someone by their collegiate career, Johnson is the imacpt player that the Raiders need to jumpstart thier sluggish offense. He's the kind of person that could spread the field and create running-passing lanes for LaMont Jordan. Of course, for this to work the Raiders need to sign, trade for, or draft a quarterback. There are veterans availible and with one of thier picks I see them doing this tomorrow. Trent Green is on the block, I think. And, of course, Vinnie Testaverde is still a free agent. Let the bidding war begin.

-Prediction- Calvin Johnson


Pick #2, Detriot Lions

-If the Raiders pick Russell with the first pick, they arent drafting Johnson; that would mean that they would have picked four recievers with their first round pick in the last five years. Their starting quarterback is Jon Kitna and for the time being they will stick with him to start. After all, he did pass for a whopping 4,000 yards. But, they want someone in the wings to replace Kitna eventually and Russell is just the kind of player to do that. The Lions will get more depth with players in the lower rounds.

-Pick- JaMarcus Russell


Pick #3, Cleveland Browns

-I dont know about you but the Browns are in quite the pickle. Cleveland ranked a 31st with a running offense of 85 yards per game. They also might want to replace Charlie Frye who was decent at best. So who do the Browns draft? Do they replace Rueben Droughns with college football star Adrian Peterson or do they draft Indiana's favorite son Brady Quinn? Its just the pickle that will either make or break Romeo Crennels idea for "rebuilding" the Browns. I think that all Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurevicius need is a competent quarterback to get the Browns to a .500 record this year. Wait, what am I talking about, the Browns suck every year, so expect Quinn to get drafted and Crennel to get fired. Wow, and I thought George W. Bush had his problems.

-Pick- Brady Quinn


Pick #4, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-The bottom line here is the Buccs need some help on their offensive line. Watch out for them to draft a lot of younger defensive players. I say 3/4's of the picks they make will be at least a position player for the defensive line-LB corps-saftey-corner. They really need some youth here.

-Pick- Joe Thomas


Pick #5, Arizona Cardinals

-On the ESPN interactive mock draft, Pasquarelli has the Cards taking Jamaal Anderson. I think this is just the perfect move for the Cardinals as well. Defense is the way to go, now that their offensive situation is finally going to look better in the next couple of years. Expect an offensive lineman second-third round.

-Pick- Jamaal Anderson


Pick #6, Washington Redskins

-Speaking of the ESPN interactive draft, they have Louisvilles Amobi Okoye going at this slot, but the 'Skins are going to want to draft Clemson's Gaines Adams, to shore up their defensive line. Adams was the ACC Defensive Player of the year and draws rave reviews as a top ten player in this draft. CBS Sportsline even has him going #2 to the Lions, as a matter of fact. Washington wants an explosive player who will help their defense now, not Okoye whos going to be good in a couple of years once he matures.

-Pick- Gaines Adams


Pick #7, Minnesota Vikings

-I'd like to know how Adrian Peterson fell down this far. Of course Cleveland could have taken him to replace an ineffective Droughns, but they need a quarterback. Quinn was just the kind of person they needed to get people back into the stadium.

I cant begin to tell you how many reports ive read about Petersons health this week. There are more reports about this issue than there are more Google news hits covering this issue than there were for the death of David Halberstram.

Peterson is probably one of the most hyped up players in this draft that is going to take a hit because of his collarbone issue. But the Vikings idea here is to draft him and replace Chester Taylor. While Taylor got the job done here, Petersons speed is perfect for Brad Childress and his West Coast offense.

Look for the Vikings to draft a quarterback in the later rounds. But Brad Johnsons job is safe, for now.

-Pick- Adrian Peterson


Pick #8, Atlanta Falcons

-Once again I differ to the ESPN mock draft that has LaRon Landry going in this spot and I concurr. The Falcons could use an impact saftey for their secondary and Landry is a good fit. ESPN notes that he is also the "best defensive player in the entire draft" and while this point is debatable you take him now before another team trades up to get him.

Pick- LaRon Landry


Pick #9, Miami Dolphins

-No analysis here just strait picking OT Levi Brown. The Dolphins could use another offensive lineman. Protection for an ailing Culpepper is key if fantasy owners want to see him last another full season.

-Pick- Levi Brown


Pick #10, Houston Texans

-I think the Texans are still in rebuilding mode and will be contender in a couple of years. The Editor-in-Chief reminded me last night that they signed Matt Shaubb for the long-term and signed Ahman Green for a couple of years. I think that the Texans are going with Amobi Okoye because hes going to be one of the better defensive tackles in the league in a few years. But the thing about him (as this Globe article notes) hes a young kid. Teams could see this as untapped potential or maybe just a raw rookie. I think the Redskins could have drafted him earlier, but the Redskins are really aggressive with impact players and dont want to take their time with Okoye. Thats why the Texans are going to sweep in and make last years pick (Domanick Williams) look better because their defensive line will be formidable in a few years. Look for them to draft linebackers-saftey-offensive line with the rest of their picks.

Pick- Amobi Okoye


Pick #11, San Francisco 49ers

-San Fran was a real surprise this year. I would like to note that quarterback Alex Smith has seemed to mature really well and the team will only get better this year (and people said Antonio Bryant was a bust). Last years pick of Vernon Davis will pay dividends down the road and maybe the 49ers can get past .500 this year. While I dont think this is going to happen, my prediction is that they will turn to the defensive side of the ball and draft linebacker Patrick Willis. Willis is just the kind of impact defensive player that could help out a rebuilding San Fran team.

-Pick- Patrick Willis


Pick #12, Buffalo Bills

-The Bills lost Nate Clements to free agency (San Fran) and they will look to saftey Reggie Nelson to replace him. Of course, they could have drafted Hall, but Nelson was a great cover saftey for Florida last year, and he cannot be passed up. With the Pats revamping their passing game, Miami getting Culpepper back, and Pennington in a bounceback year, the Bills want to win an AFC East game this year. While this last point may be the last thing on thier agenda, they want to replace the gaping hole they lost with Clements and Nelson is their man.

-Pick- Leon Hall


Pick #13, St Louis Rams

-I differ to the ESPN draft once again and will go with Darrelle Revis. The Rams are not known for their secondary and what a great place to start with Revis. ESPN notes, "They might consider wide receiver Robert Meachem, but Revis will pair with last year's first-round pick, Tye Hill, to give the Rams a solid secondary for years to come." Of course, they could always replace the aging Issac Bruce, but hes got one more year left in him, right?

-Pick- Darrelle Revis


Pick #14, Carolina Panthers

-The Panthers defense is solid year-in and year-out and corner Leon Hall is just the depth they would like to see on their team. Hall was spectacular in his senior season at Michigan with 35 tackles 18 pass breakups (Junior season- 61 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 INT's). But, they could always trade down or pick a wide-reciever with this slot too. I would laugh my rear end off if Keyshawn Johnson saw his replacement get drafted right before his very eyes, on national TV. Now thats unintentional comedy at its finest right there.

-Pick- Leon Hall


Pick #15, Pittsburg Steelers

-What city has the same colors for all four major sports? That's right its Pittsburg, or at least it was the last time I checked out the Steelers, Penguins, Pirates, and wait they dont have an NBA team. Guess its only three teams then. Oh and by the way the Steelers are picking Adam Carriker.

-Pick- Adam Carriker


Pick #16, Green Bay Packers

-If you have read this far down thanks for sticking it out. I could have ended the predictions at #10, but thats no fun. I had to get it in somehow that the Packers are going to draft Marshawn Lynch. As I noted earlier, the Texans signed Ahman Green, which leaves Vernard Mourency as the starting tailback. At home your going, who the heck is Mourency? Exactly, some no name running back that just happens to be listed as the #1 running back for Green Bay. I thought so, you like my pick with Lynch Packers fans. Then again, you all are cheese-heads anyway.

Of course, the Packers could always draft a wide-receiver to compliment Donald Driver and Jennings, but they wont do that. They could always draft a player on defense, and then hold off until the second round to draft Micheal Bush, but I dont think thats going happen either.

-Pick- Marshawn Lynch


Pats Picks:

-#24- Micheal Griffin/ Brandon Merriweather
-Thoughts- Lets face it, Rodney Harrison has become injury prone. Im not disrespecting him in anyway with this point here, but thats now two injuries to one of the key players in the secondary in two years. While he looks to bounce back this year, look for the Pats to draft a saftey to fill the void and get some depth for thier secondary. They want an impact player right from the get-go and I say Griffin is thier man. I also list Merriweather too because he's an impressive prospect and he (as well as Griffin) play special teams. I really could go either way on this one.

-#28- David Harris/Paul Posluszny
-Thoughts- I am torn between these two players. I remember last years Orange Bowl (Penn State vs Florida State) and I told myself to remember Posluszny's name because hes just the kind of person the Pats look for. Then he got carted off the field in the fourth quarter, which was a shame. But, I think hes a player that the Pats want to help out their linebacking corps. I could go with Harris too because he's a really good MLB that could replace Teddy Bruschi when its time for him to hang up the cleats (a thought im not ready to digest as of yet). The linebacking corps is an issue that needs to be adressed because its the oldest position on the field.

-Another point-The Pats could also target an offensive lineman like Ryan Kalil, but hes going in the top 25. He's a good player and wont last very long, unless he falls. Pats will have decisions to make with this pick. I still am going with the linebacker pick here though. Im just throwing this out there as well.


-Noteables:

QB-
-Troy Smith- Third/Fourth round
-Random point- Imagine how high Troy Smith would be on this list if Ohio State had won the National Championship game. Imagine how much higher he would have been if he actually had come back to rally from a 20 point halftime deficit. I remind you this kid won the Heisman and he's getting picked in the Third-Fourth round? There's something seriously wrong here.
-Drew Stanton- Third/Fourth

RB's
-Micheal Bush- Second round
-Antonio Pittman- Second round
-Darius Walker- Third round

WR's
-Ted Ginn Jr- First round
-Gonzales- Second round
-Dwayne Jarrett- First round- Chargers 30th pick

TE
-Greg Olson- First round (ESPN.com says the Jets)


-Dark Horse pick of the draft- Jared Zabranski
-I am in absolutle shock when I dont see his name on any top 10 qb prospect lists on ESPN.com. Im just shocked and appalled. I think that this kid could be a very good quarterback in a few years on the right team, with the right system, and the right recievers. Wikipedia notes that he was the fastest QB at the combine with a 4.58 in the 40 time and tied for first with quarterbacks in the shuttle time.

Look for this kid to be an under the radar pick in the fourth-fifth round. This kid is a leader on the field that showed what kind of quarterback he can be on national TV in the Fiesta Bowl. In one of the best games in the last 10 years in college football he led his team to a victory in overtime over the Big 12 Champion, Oklahoma.

Once again, while there is no indication that success in college means success in the NFL, the same case applies here. We'll see what happens in a few years. Of course, he could ride the pine for the next five years and then well, id be shit out of luck with this pick. But remember, dont ask me who's on the cover of NCAA 2008 this year, because I just told you.


-Enjoy the draft